2012-07-21 07:50:30
Tassos Symeonides
(RIEAS Academic Advisor)
Copyright: www.rieas.gr
One of the many depressing stories of Greek diplomacy is the extension of our territorial waters, which politician after politician in recent years has labeled "an undeniable right of Greece.
" Another "undeniable right" of equal, if not bigger, strategic importance is the issue of the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
During the election campaign, Mr. Samaras gave the impression that the EEZ was one of his top priorities, with its declaration being treated as an imminent reality. But just like so many other politicians' promises, this imminent reality has been pushed, post-election, to the side; Mr. Samaras clearly stated during his recent programmatic statement in parliament that the EEZ has been relegated to "the future" -- in other words, it is being treated like so many other of Greece's "undeniable rights" that never see the light of day.
The denial for a determined approach to the EEZ question couldn't have come at a worse moment. Greece is at the bottom of the pile, with lenders dictating to its government how national assets will be "managed" in coming years, so that the creditors, and not the people of Greece, become the main beneficiaries of this "management." The discovery of huge natural gas reserves in the block between Cyprus and Israel, and the swift emergence of an energy understanding between these two countries, highlights the strategic energy potential of the broader area between Greece and Turkey, a potential that remains unexploited to this day because of Turkish threats of retaliation. At the heart of the matter is Ankara's demand for an "equitable solution" in the Aegean that will offer Turkey rights that it presently does not have regarding the sovereignty of the seabed.
The Samaras government hopefully realizes the enormous strategic implications of another major find either in the Aegean or in the Levant Basin. With research to date suggesting that this possibility isn't just a pipedream, moving the EEZ declaration to the forefront of Greece's priorities becomes an absolute, pressing objective.
To do so will though require political backbone and a sense of timing that do not apparently grace this shaky coalition government. Furthermore, diplomatic commentators point to the growing and "undivided" US attention to energy matters in the region, especially in light of Washington's persistent efforts to deny the expansion of Russia-Europe energy relations, a game in which Turkey appears to have a key role.
In theory, this Greek government should be planning the unilateral declaration of the EEZ as quickly as possible. The gesture, aside from causing Turkey a major strategic upset, would also present Greece's "friends and allies" with a fait accompli that would be irreversible save an "allied" military intervention to teach the unruly Greeks a lesson -- a choice that would open the Pandora's Box in the middle of the most volatile area in the Mediterranean and instantly draw the European "union" into a crisis that would almost certainly lead to its dissolution.
Mr. Samaras and his advisers should appreciate the significance of deliberate spoiling action under carefully planned maskirovka to surprise equally Turkey and its sponsors among our "allies." With Greece involved in desperate total economic war with its "partners," the present administration must readjust its risk estimates and undertake the kind of action Greek governments have been postponing for decades.
InfoGnomon
(RIEAS Academic Advisor)
Copyright: www.rieas.gr
One of the many depressing stories of Greek diplomacy is the extension of our territorial waters, which politician after politician in recent years has labeled "an undeniable right of Greece.
" Another "undeniable right" of equal, if not bigger, strategic importance is the issue of the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
During the election campaign, Mr. Samaras gave the impression that the EEZ was one of his top priorities, with its declaration being treated as an imminent reality. But just like so many other politicians' promises, this imminent reality has been pushed, post-election, to the side; Mr. Samaras clearly stated during his recent programmatic statement in parliament that the EEZ has been relegated to "the future" -- in other words, it is being treated like so many other of Greece's "undeniable rights" that never see the light of day.
The denial for a determined approach to the EEZ question couldn't have come at a worse moment. Greece is at the bottom of the pile, with lenders dictating to its government how national assets will be "managed" in coming years, so that the creditors, and not the people of Greece, become the main beneficiaries of this "management." The discovery of huge natural gas reserves in the block between Cyprus and Israel, and the swift emergence of an energy understanding between these two countries, highlights the strategic energy potential of the broader area between Greece and Turkey, a potential that remains unexploited to this day because of Turkish threats of retaliation. At the heart of the matter is Ankara's demand for an "equitable solution" in the Aegean that will offer Turkey rights that it presently does not have regarding the sovereignty of the seabed.
The Samaras government hopefully realizes the enormous strategic implications of another major find either in the Aegean or in the Levant Basin. With research to date suggesting that this possibility isn't just a pipedream, moving the EEZ declaration to the forefront of Greece's priorities becomes an absolute, pressing objective.
To do so will though require political backbone and a sense of timing that do not apparently grace this shaky coalition government. Furthermore, diplomatic commentators point to the growing and "undivided" US attention to energy matters in the region, especially in light of Washington's persistent efforts to deny the expansion of Russia-Europe energy relations, a game in which Turkey appears to have a key role.
In theory, this Greek government should be planning the unilateral declaration of the EEZ as quickly as possible. The gesture, aside from causing Turkey a major strategic upset, would also present Greece's "friends and allies" with a fait accompli that would be irreversible save an "allied" military intervention to teach the unruly Greeks a lesson -- a choice that would open the Pandora's Box in the middle of the most volatile area in the Mediterranean and instantly draw the European "union" into a crisis that would almost certainly lead to its dissolution.
Mr. Samaras and his advisers should appreciate the significance of deliberate spoiling action under carefully planned maskirovka to surprise equally Turkey and its sponsors among our "allies." With Greece involved in desperate total economic war with its "partners," the present administration must readjust its risk estimates and undertake the kind of action Greek governments have been postponing for decades.
InfoGnomon
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