2012-03-09 13:59:42
Fw: extraordinary achievementEmail-ID3573985Date2010-09-04 03:47:[email protected]@stratfor.com
Below is an email from the prime minister of turkey's head of
international communication. He runs turkey's international image and is
extremely powerful in the government. As you can see below I reached out
to him as this crisis broke. After 48 hours he responded. That's a long
delay so this was discussed. As you can see he is offering to broker a
peace.
The gulen is a faction the government fears. It is extremely complex and I
won't explain it here but ibrahim's ability to intervene indicates our
status.
This has been a long 48 hours for reva and kamran and for me. This is far
from the only time we've been caught in a shitstorm but its an opportunity
to introduce the execs to one of the real complexities facing this
company.
Out international influence is substantial and part of the reason for our
success. While I won't ever back away from a fight I ideally have to find
a way to calm things down. As you can imagine this fellow is a great
source so I have to be careful. There are times when stratfor is
conducting its own foreign policy. Its really important that all
executives have a sense of this dimension. It makes us money, don. It can
make lots of money. Few companies have this kind of access around the
world.
if anyone has questions I'd be happy to answer. You need to understand how
this stuff is part of our business model.
Obviously this is stratfor classified. The issue is known in the company.
This communication is known to reva, kamran and the execs. The
relationship I have with this guy has to be secret and certainly this
communication.
Have a happy labor day. Chances of turkish terrorist killing us all just
diminished. A good thing.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Ibrahim Kalin
Date: Fri, 3 Sep 2010 20:08:42 -0500 (CDT)
To: George Friedman
Subject: Re: extraordinary achievement
dear george.
i understand your dilemma! it is more a reflection of the realities of
turkish society and politics than an error or failure in your analysis.
such a complicated society as turkey does not lend itself to neat
categories.
but there are, as you know very well, different levels of analysis and
they can be applied to the religious and political trends in turkey. this
holds true for the gulen movement as well as the secularists (and ak party
and others). part of the reason why there is always a very strong reaction
to an analysis that seems to leave out one piece of the puzzle is that
there is a deep sense of existential threat in almost all social and
political movements/groups in turkey. the modern turkish republic was
founded upon a zero-sum game for various historical reasons and security
in the widest sense of the term has been the top priority of the
republican elites for many decades. paradoxically and rather sadly, it has
created similar emotions and reactions among the non-state elites, leading
to a mirror image. ak party, probably the most successful political
movement in recent turkish history in terms of its ability to project a
new social imagination across the turkish society (i just came back from a
major rally in diyarbakir where pm erdogan embraced the entire country
with its turks, kurds, arabs, etc, without stepping on anyone's toe- a
nearly impossible job!).
regarding the gulen movement, there are many points that need to be
considered. but i know this is not what you ask in your message.
the best thing to do is to reach fethullah gulen himself. but that might
too cumbersome. my suggestion is to contact ekrem dumanli, editor-in-chief
of zaman newspaper. i will be happy to introduce you to him.
regards,
ibrahim
2010/9/1 George Friedman
Dear Ibrahim:
Stratfor appears to have achieved the impossible.* We are disliked by
the secularists for spreading the idea of neo-Ottomanism and now by the
Gulen movement as agents of foreign powers (I guess that means the U.S.
and Israel).* It is hard to offend both groups but we have done it.* My
view of our analysis of the Gulen movement is that it described it as
what it was--a powerful strand of the Turkish polity.* We have been
accused of saying that they were violent (we didn't) and of being
foreign agents (we aren't).*
The responses are in a way understandable, but at the same time it is a
bit troubling.* I doubt that there is any group as favorably inclined to
Turkey as Stratfor is at this moment and we take a lot of grief from the
Armenians and Jews for this. I am particularly pressured but I take
perverse pride in resisting.*
So I write asking some advice.* I have nothing against the Gulen
movement.* I find it interesting and important and worth the time and
effort we spent studying them.* We understood what they wanted but what
we gave them was, in an American context, not at all negative.* They are
a powerful group to be taken seriously.* I am inclined to call someone
if not to smooth things over but to make it clear that I have no
animosity toward them--simply to set that part of the record straight,
and to listen to particularly criticisms.* Detailed objections have been
scarce.*
Do you have any suggestion on whether and how to proceed.* I know this
might be delicate for you so if you want to decline involvement I
entirely understand.
George
--
George Friedman
Founder and CEO
Stratfor
700 Lavaca Street
Suite 900
Austin, Texas 78701
Phone* 512-744-4319
Fax* 512-744-4334
wikileaks InfoGnomon
Below is an email from the prime minister of turkey's head of
international communication. He runs turkey's international image and is
extremely powerful in the government. As you can see below I reached out
to him as this crisis broke. After 48 hours he responded. That's a long
delay so this was discussed. As you can see he is offering to broker a
peace.
The gulen is a faction the government fears. It is extremely complex and I
won't explain it here but ibrahim's ability to intervene indicates our
status.
This has been a long 48 hours for reva and kamran and for me. This is far
from the only time we've been caught in a shitstorm but its an opportunity
to introduce the execs to one of the real complexities facing this
company.
Out international influence is substantial and part of the reason for our
success. While I won't ever back away from a fight I ideally have to find
a way to calm things down. As you can imagine this fellow is a great
source so I have to be careful. There are times when stratfor is
conducting its own foreign policy. Its really important that all
executives have a sense of this dimension. It makes us money, don. It can
make lots of money. Few companies have this kind of access around the
world.
if anyone has questions I'd be happy to answer. You need to understand how
this stuff is part of our business model.
Obviously this is stratfor classified. The issue is known in the company.
This communication is known to reva, kamran and the execs. The
relationship I have with this guy has to be secret and certainly this
communication.
Have a happy labor day. Chances of turkish terrorist killing us all just
diminished. A good thing.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Ibrahim Kalin
Date: Fri, 3 Sep 2010 20:08:42 -0500 (CDT)
To: George Friedman
Subject: Re: extraordinary achievement
dear george.
i understand your dilemma! it is more a reflection of the realities of
turkish society and politics than an error or failure in your analysis.
such a complicated society as turkey does not lend itself to neat
categories.
but there are, as you know very well, different levels of analysis and
they can be applied to the religious and political trends in turkey. this
holds true for the gulen movement as well as the secularists (and ak party
and others). part of the reason why there is always a very strong reaction
to an analysis that seems to leave out one piece of the puzzle is that
there is a deep sense of existential threat in almost all social and
political movements/groups in turkey. the modern turkish republic was
founded upon a zero-sum game for various historical reasons and security
in the widest sense of the term has been the top priority of the
republican elites for many decades. paradoxically and rather sadly, it has
created similar emotions and reactions among the non-state elites, leading
to a mirror image. ak party, probably the most successful political
movement in recent turkish history in terms of its ability to project a
new social imagination across the turkish society (i just came back from a
major rally in diyarbakir where pm erdogan embraced the entire country
with its turks, kurds, arabs, etc, without stepping on anyone's toe- a
nearly impossible job!).
regarding the gulen movement, there are many points that need to be
considered. but i know this is not what you ask in your message.
the best thing to do is to reach fethullah gulen himself. but that might
too cumbersome. my suggestion is to contact ekrem dumanli, editor-in-chief
of zaman newspaper. i will be happy to introduce you to him.
regards,
ibrahim
2010/9/1 George Friedman
Dear Ibrahim:
Stratfor appears to have achieved the impossible.* We are disliked by
the secularists for spreading the idea of neo-Ottomanism and now by the
Gulen movement as agents of foreign powers (I guess that means the U.S.
and Israel).* It is hard to offend both groups but we have done it.* My
view of our analysis of the Gulen movement is that it described it as
what it was--a powerful strand of the Turkish polity.* We have been
accused of saying that they were violent (we didn't) and of being
foreign agents (we aren't).*
The responses are in a way understandable, but at the same time it is a
bit troubling.* I doubt that there is any group as favorably inclined to
Turkey as Stratfor is at this moment and we take a lot of grief from the
Armenians and Jews for this. I am particularly pressured but I take
perverse pride in resisting.*
So I write asking some advice.* I have nothing against the Gulen
movement.* I find it interesting and important and worth the time and
effort we spent studying them.* We understood what they wanted but what
we gave them was, in an American context, not at all negative.* They are
a powerful group to be taken seriously.* I am inclined to call someone
if not to smooth things over but to make it clear that I have no
animosity toward them--simply to set that part of the record straight,
and to listen to particularly criticisms.* Detailed objections have been
scarce.*
Do you have any suggestion on whether and how to proceed.* I know this
might be delicate for you so if you want to decline involvement I
entirely understand.
George
--
George Friedman
Founder and CEO
Stratfor
700 Lavaca Street
Suite 900
Austin, Texas 78701
Phone* 512-744-4319
Fax* 512-744-4334
wikileaks InfoGnomon
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